This expected chance of recidivism is calculated by several specific personal traits, such as gender, age and number of prior convictions. For ex-residents of Exodus, the expected chance of recidivism is 57%. This means that the target group for Exodus is slightly `heavier` than the average ex-detainee, for whom the expected chance of recidivism is 55%. Furthermore, the research shows that results improve the longer residents stay with Exodus and therefore complete the guidance program more fully. Residents who have finished the Exodus program become repeat offenders after two years only half as often as residents who have been expelled prematurely. (31% against 64%) Those who finish do significantly better than those who quit. While alternative explanations cannot be excluded, the care and guidance of Exodus does seem to lead to a reduction in repeat offenses. Because of this, Exodus guidance also leads to significant cost savings on the grounds that criminality and recidivism clearly carry a hefty social cost.

Numbers aside, it is too bad that an organization like Exodus seems to be `calculated in` as simply a contribution to recidivism reduction. It fails to do justice to the fact that the results that Exodus achieves are dependent on many other organizations (such as probation services, prison staff, building corporations, municipal social services, employers, churches, etc.) as well as external circumstances such as employment rates and the availability of suitable rental homes.

Calculating things on the basis of recidivism numbers unfortunately also leads to outflow results becoming important to future financing. If there is too much focus on outflow results, we run the risk of losing track of the actual goal, which is the improvement of the situation for people with a criminal past. If the intake already steers towards expected results, only those people who look to have a large chance of success would be admitted. A large group of (ex-)detainees who also need guidance would risk being pushed aside.

The contribution that Exodus makes is in more than recidivism numbers alone. The faith in the power of people, the offer of a future and the creation of a societal basis for the reintegration of ex-detainees into society are also important contributions that Exodus makes to society.